The outcome of the US presidential election will bring further instability to container markets, encouraging an increase in US imports in view of the possible imposition of new tariffs.
Linerlytica is convinced of this. On the basis of data from 2018, the market analyst estimates that importers rushing to anticipate orders in the event of a worsening economic scenario could lead to a 10-15% growth in US imports between now and next February.
In the short term, front-loading will support the increasing container freight rates in the spot market. While in the medium-to-long term, the consequences of a new trade war based on tariffs could be severe, all the more so since the US trade deficit has been growing substantially over the last six years, since the first set of trade tariffs was introduced.
In other words, despite the application of new customs taxes, the US has continued to spend more than it earns. Proof of this is the fact that, to date, total container imports into the US are over 2.4 times more than exports.
Over the same period, average monthly imports have risen by 18% while exports have fallen by 10%, with the number of empty boxes repositioned outside the US has increased by 39%.
Translation by Giles Foster
