Shipping is becoming increasingly volatile. So much so that today it is difficult to predict with any certainty how many sailings actually take place in a given week as part of an east-west service, according to Sea-Intelligence, in its latest report.
“Vessel delays/early arrivals, blank sailings and extra-loaders, all increase the volatility in the number of sailings per week,” says the consultancy firm’s CEO, Alan Murphy, adding that today “fluctuations have increased sharply compared to before the pandemic.”
To illustrate this phenomenon, Sea-Int. calculated the percentage deviation rate of departures from planned schedules from January 2012 to January 2023.
During this time, the fluctuation rate rose dramatically on services between Asia and the west coast of North America. The peak was reached at the beginning of 2021 and after a period of stabilization, we are now beginning to see a new phase of increasing volatility.
On the trade route between Asia and the east coast of the North American continent, the peak was reached in January 2022. Today, the volatility rate appears to have stabilized at a level that is still higher than pre-pandemic values.
On routes between Asia and Northern Europe, the volatility of the number of departures has been on the rise since 2013, with sudden surges in the early 2020s and in the summer of 2021. There was a sharp drop in early 2022, with volatility plateauing about 6 percentage points higher than in the pre-pandemic period.
In the Asia-Mediterranean trade, on the other hand, volatility is declining, although it is still higher than in the pre-pandemic period.
Translation by Giles Foster