Uncertain growth prospects for the global economy. Growth is expected to decline overall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8 % in 2023, before settling at 3.0 % in 2024. Leading economies are expected to experience a particularly pronounced slowdown in growth, from 2.7 % in 2022 to 1.3 % in 2023. This is the scenario the International Monetary Fund presents in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).
According to UK analyst firm Sea Intelligence although these macroeconomic trends are not directly applicable to the shipping industry, the WEO is an excellent indicator of the health of the global economy-
A major concern for Sea INT is that Germany and the UK are likely to go into recession in 2023, with France dangerously close behind.
Sea Int. points out that while the UK was already expected to be in a recession in the IMF’s January update, Germany forecasted a marginal 0.1% growth in 2023. The latter has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points, while the former has been marked up by 0.3 percentage points.
According to the market analyst the UK was initially expected to go through a much stronger recession. France, on the other hand, is expected to see its economy grow by 0.7% in 2023, with the forecast unchanged from the January 2023 report.
Translation by Giles Foster
